Enterprise Television- Stocks Set for Biggest Weekly Drop Since Late 2016 as Bond Yields Rise
World stocks were set to post their biggest weekly drop since late 2016 on Friday, as talk of central bank policy tightening and expectations of higher inflation boosted borrowing costs globally, a move that sparked a sell-off in shares.
The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was down 0.3%. The index was set to snap its longest winning streak since 1999 – 10 weeks of gains – and record its biggest weekly loss since November 2016.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury jumped to more than 2.8%, its highest level since early 2014. That markedly steepened the yield curve and squeezed out investors who had feverishly bet on a tighter spread between longer-dated and short-dated yields.
Global central banks have recently struck a more hawkish tone, with impressive economic data and buoyant oil prices driving up long-term inflation expectations. [USIL5YF5Y=R]
The European Central Bank, for one, is widely expected to end its asset-purchase programme as early as September. That has pushed five-year German Bund yields above zero for the first time since 2015. UK gilt prices also cheapened significantly.
The Bank of Japan did its best to stem the rise in borrowing costs, stepping into the market on Friday with a promise to buy as many bonds as it would take to keep yields low.
Some investors have also grown wary of the pace of the global equity bull run, and have begun reducing their exposure to equities. Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a weekly note on global asset flows that its bull and bear indicator hit 8.6, triggering a sell signal for risk assets.
“If you look at a variety of indicators, it looks like we have swung to levels of extreme bullishness. We have seen substantial inflows,” said Paul ‘O Connor, head of UK-based Janus Henderson’s multi-asset team.
“We have seen consensus crowding into the long equity trade so actually we have begun to fade the move and take some equity risk off in the last few weeks.”
In currencies, the euro held above $1.25, near a three-year high, while the dollar failed to get a lift from the rise in the U.S. Treasury yield.
“You’d think that with rates up, the dollar would be up, but investors are focusing their interest elsewhere,” such as further evidence that the European economy is picking up, said Jeff Kravetz, regional investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
Bitcoin, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, continued to tumble after hitting a record high $19,666 in December on the Bit stamp exchange. It was last down 7.7% at a more than two-month trough of $8,262.
UNEASE IN EQUITIES
European shares fell and were set for their biggest weekly loss in six months as a slump in Deutsche Bank after a bigger-than-expected loss hit the heavyweight banking sector.
A 5% drop in shares of the German lender and losses in most sectors dragged the pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX index down 0.4 %, set for its fifth straight session of declines. Germany’s DAX .GDAXI fell 0.8% and the UK’s FTSE .FTSE dropped 0.4%.
The STOXX is down 2.2% so far this week, its biggest weekly loss since August.
Asian shares stumbled, with Korean and Japanese benchmark indices falling 1.7% and 0.9% respectively..
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.3% and away from a record high.
Wall Street saw a mixed closing on Thursday with the Dow up 0.1%, the S&P 500 marginally off and Nasdaq down 0.35%.
In commodities, gold hovered near a six-month peak at $1,346.52 an ounce. [GOL/]
Oil rose after a survey showed strong compliance with output cuts by OPEC and others including Russia, offsetting concerns about surging U.S. production. [O/R]
U.S. crude rose 0.2% to $65.94 per barrel and Brent edged 0.1% higher to $69.70.
Investors now await January’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for clues on the strength of the labour market.
Nonfarm payrolls probably rose by 180,000 jobs last month after increasing 148,000 in December, according to a survey of economists. The unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged at a 17 year low of 4.1%.